Forecasting Net
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Successfully predicting the global market using a specialized econometric model, allowing for proactive, long-term planning. According to the forecast, based on the Interaction Systems’ model, global GDP is expected to almost double by the end of 2030, albeit with decelerating growth rates as we move toward the end of the forecast.
Successfully giving an early warning for the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 and the subsequent Global Recession of 2009. The forecast performed before the collapse of the Lehman Brothers in 2008 and discovered an economic cycle and predicted the possibility of a crisis in our times of a magnitude similar to the oil crisis in the 1970s and the Global Depression & WWII in the 1930s.
Contrary to popular belief that increased lending, first in the financial and corporate sector and then on a country level, is the key source of Europe’s problems, it turns out that this may be just the tip of the iceberg in a series of many structural problems, namely: reduced global influence, low growth, population aging, reduced competitiveness against developing countries, increasing energy dependency, and loose coordination among participating countries. Overall, Europe is quickly losing momentum in the global economy as it becomes more and more “yesterday’s news”. However, the solution may exist in what we call the “large” Europe scenario.
In this article, published in Marketing Research Association’s Alert! magazine, Roger’s Diffusion of Innovations Model, based on a simple s-curve, is explored, as well as its numerous applications in marketing, business, and the economy. A case study of application to the global economy is offered as a proof of concept of the famous model.
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