Forecasting Net

Look into the future

Blog

Global warming-CO2 concentration level forecast

Posted by forecastingtool on March 21, 2011 at 5:40 PM

The increased CO2 concentration level due to human activity contribute to global warming with significant repercussions to our planet. At 2008, the CO2 level was 385.34* ppm (parts per million). According to recent research**, if we reach the 450 ppm limit, this will result in an increase of the global temperature by more than 2°C (3.6°F) with catastrophic repercussions for the environment. This is the limit that usually most developed countries take into account when drawing their environmental policies.

 

Well, the interesting question is if this is an actual threat or if the 450 ppm limit is unreachable in the following decades, based on the existing historical growth patterns of CO2 concentration.

 

In order to find out, I used the Forecasting Tool application to analyze the global CO2 concentration levels from 1900 up to 2008*. As an initial displacement, I used the year 1899 CO2 concentration from the same data set. The forecast unveils a two century growth process that is currently half way to completion leading to 17% higher CO2 levels in the atmosphere, by the year 2050:

 

 

 

According to this forecast, the 450 ppm limit will be reached, by 2048, posing a serious and tangible threat to our environment that needs to be addressed from now if we want to be effective.

 

You can download the Global warming-CO2 level case study here.

 

*Source of actual data (CO2 concentration-parts per million):

EarthTrends ( http://earthtrends.wri.org) Searchable Database Results

Provided by the World Resources Institute (http://www.wri.org)

Data downloaded 8 Mar 2011

Data before 1958: Neftel, Friedli, Moore et al. 1994. Historical Carbon Dioxide Record from the Siple Station Ice Core (reported on-line by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center at http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/co2/siple2.013). Bern, Switzerland: University of Bern.

Data after 1958: Keeling, C.D., Whorf, T.P., and the Scripps Institute of Oceanography. 2005. Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations (ppmv) derived from in-situ air samples collected at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii (reported on-line by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center at http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/co2/maunaloa.co2. Mauna Loa: Scripps Institute of Oceanography.

Content licensed under a Creative Commons License

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.5/ 

** http://timeforchange.org/CO2-cause-of-global-warming

 

 

UPDATE JULY 2013:

This forecast, based on data up to 2008, follows accurately actual values for CO2 emissions for 2009-2012



 







Categories: Global warming, Forecasting

Post a Comment

Oops!

Oops, you forgot something.

Oops!

The words you entered did not match the given text. Please try again.

Already a member? Sign In

5 Comments

Reply Elena
3:26 AM on March 23, 2011 
Interesting results. Could the tool be used to forecast top radiation emissions from Japan quake?
Reply forecastingtool
7:43 PM on March 26, 2011 
In principle yes. However it would be rather "tricky" to find reliable data at the time that this situation unfolds. I will look around to see if I can get some info and come back...
Reply Lituus
3:22 PM on June 24, 2011 
Ana then also trees reduce capture CO2
http://luisletosa.blogspot.com/2011/02/debido-al-cambio-climatico
-los-arboles.html
Reply animal onesies walmart
5:51 PM on July 24, 2018 
We absolutely love your blog and find almost all of your post's to be exactly what I'm looking for. Does one offer guest writers to write content for you personally? I wouldn't mind creating a post or elaborating on most of the subjects you write regarding here. Again, awesome site!
animal onesies walmart https://romainecordero.hatenadiary.com/entry/2018/07/20/033624
Reply animal onesie pajamas
10:31 AM on August 21, 2018 
Hi I am so glad I found your web site, I really found you by accident, while I was searching on Google for something else, Regardless I am here now and would just like to say thank you for a fantastic post and a all round thrilling blog (I also love the theme/design), I don?t have time to look over it all at the minute but I have saved it and also included your RSS feeds, so when I have time I will be back to read much more, Please do keep up the fantastic b.
animal onesie pajamas https://wallinside.com/post-64623171-tips-to-follow-when-buying-o
nesies-for-adults-online.html