Forecasting Net

I am a great fan of Dan Brown. I have read all of his books and enjoyed every single one of them! Great fiction and storytelling. Most of all, I always admired Brown's capacity to fuse fantastic elements with actual historical or scientific facts. This is why I decided to test his last-and one of my favorite-books, the “Inferno”.

Before we procee...

Although the history and implications of the Cold War between the US and the USSR are well documented, it is still not quite clear why it ended up as it did, with the collapse of the Soviet Bloc and a clear win for the US.

Using a methodology presented in the recent post, “What makes our world and the economy tick?”...

The ancient Greek civilization emerged during the 8th century BC, almost out of nowhere, reaching a peak point in just three centuries, the Golden Age of Pericles in the 5th century BC that is still considered one of the most brilliant moments of human history.

Although the marvels of Ancient Greece are common knowledge today, it is still not quite clear what triggered this important period of development.

By using a methodology prese...

As the Second Economic Adjustment Program for Greece is soon coming to an end, there is a growing debate about the impact of the agreed austerity measures, whether the economic recession is finally over, and, most of all, what the next day may be.

In order to evaluate the course and future potential of the Greek economy, in terms of GDP value and growth levels, we used a double

As the number of reported cases of the recent Ebola virus outbreak is continuously rising, so is the concern of the people and public officials about the possible duration and severity of the deadly epidemic.

In order to estimate the evolution of the disease, we used the s-curve model an...

This book is a stand-alone sequel to Theodore Modis’s ground-breaking book Predictions: Society’s Telltale Signature Reveals the Past and Forecasts the Future (Simon & Schuster, 1992). In addition to confronting the predictions made 20 years ago with actual data-something forecasters generally ref...

China’s recent growth frenzy should not be a surprise. Its economy has been one of the largest in the world in the last two thousand years, reaching a peak point near the beginning of the 19th century, accounting for almost one third of the global economy at the time. However, by the mid-20th century the Chinese Empire and its economy collapsed to a mere 5% contribution to global GDP only to rise again after Deng Xiaoping assumed power in 1977. Key in understanding these econ...

Although it is common knowledge that the development of the past 500 years is based on a series of important discoveries that helped shape our modern civilization, we still don’t understand exactly how innovation adds value to the economy and, even more, how to quantify this relationship. This post will shed some light to the relationship between innovation and economic growth and help us understand how our decisions and efforts today may influence our future!

It’s been four years since the still raging global economic crisis begun in 2008. Although our understanding of the crisis is getting better, we still don’t have a clear idea where the global economy is heading and what kind of growth (if any) we should be expecting in the future.

According to an article published by...

Contrary to popular belief that increased lending, first in the financial and corporate sector and then on a country level, is the key source of Europe’s problems, it turns out that this may be just the tip of the iceberg in a series of many structural problems, namely: reduced global influence, low growth, population ageing, reduced competitiveness against developing countries, increasing energy dependency, and loose coordination among participating countries. Overall, Europe...

You are walking on the street, en-route for meeting your girlfriend. You are late and should have already made reservations for lunch. Disaster? Not really! Your sunglasses-your latest gadget-takes care of everything: spotting the closest Italian restaurant-your girlfriend loves Italian cuisine, making reservations on-line and giving directions to you and your girlfriend-you both bought the same pair! One more thing to take care of and everything should be in order. You instruct your sunglass...

In this article*, published in Marketing Research Association’s Alert! magazine, Roger’s Diffusion of Innovations model, based on a simple s-curve, is explored as well as its numerous applications in marketing, business, and the economy. A case study of application to the global economy is offered as a proof of concept for the famous model.

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Following the 2008 credit crunch, the global economy entered a serious recession, marking negative growth rates at 2009, for the first time in 60 years. The initial efforts of the G20 to reinitiate the economy by the deployment of extensive stimulus packages, although successful in the beginning, resulted in the significant rise of public debts challenging the ...

Today’s clear winner is tomorrow’s obvious mistake. It's no news that our world is changing rapidly, sometimes in directions that we do not anticipate. And that's good because it gives the opportunity to newcomers to advance quickly and introduce new ideas and concepts thus changing the competitive landscape forever. Take social media, for instance. It's no secret today that Myspace is washed-out. But it wasn't always like this...

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An excellent article about innovation dynamics based on Kondratiev long waves theory (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave).

Could it be that we are at the peak of the innovation cycle, facing a possible downfall in the future? Just consider the implications for our technology driven world…

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Following a previous entry about global CO2 concentration level and a suggestion by a LinkedIn group member, I used the Forecasting Tool to forecast the global temperature rise. I used actual data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)* for 1950 up to 2...

Visit www.growth-dynamics.com, a valuable resource, for everyone interested in forecasting. Theodore Modis, an acclaimed scientist and futurist, is largely responsible for making S-curve fitting, the same methodology that I used in developing the Forecasting Tool application, known to a broader audience.

Check out my favorite...

In this excellent video, Arthur Clarke predicts our future back in 1964! Makes us all feel “envy” of this incredible man and futurist…