Forecasting Net

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Impact of culture on economic development

Posted by forecastingtool on May 24, 2016 at 4:05 PM Comments comments (0)
The quantitative impact of cultural traits to economic growth on a country level. In order to measure culture, in the sense of standard behaviors characteristic to the people of a certain country, we use the six dimensions first introduced by professor Geert Hofstede: Power Distance, Individualism, Masculinity, Uncertainty avoidance, Long term orientation, and Indulgence.

Find more about the relationship betw...
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Scientific facts behind Dan Brown's book "Inferno" (warning to readers: spoilers)

Posted by forecastingtool on August 20, 2015 at 11:00 AM Comments comments (0)

I am a great fan of Dan Brown. I have read all of his books and enjoyed every single one of them! Great fiction and storytelling. Most of all, I always admired Brown's capacity to fuse fantastic elements with actual historical or scientific facts. This is why I decided to test his last-and one of my favorite-books, the “Inferno”.

Before we procee...

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What makes the economy tick - Part IV - US vs. USSR rivalry

Posted by forecastingtool on June 15, 2015 at 6:40 PM Comments comments (0)

Although the history and implications of the Cold War between the US and the USSR are well documented, it is still not quite clear why it ended up as it did, with the collapse of the Soviet Bloc and a clear win for the US.

Using a methodology presented in the recent post, “What makes our world and the economy tick?”...

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What makes the economy tick - Part III - Ancient Greece

Posted by forecastingtool on February 14, 2015 at 5:50 PM Comments comments (0)

The ancient Greek civilization emerged during the 8th century BC, almost out of nowhere, reaching a peak point in just three centuries, the Golden Age of Pericles in the 5th century BC that is still considered one of the most brilliant moments of human history.

Although the marvels of Ancient Greece are common knowledge today, it is still not quite clear what triggered this important period of development.

By using a methodology prese...

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Greek GDP forecast: a lost decade?

Posted by forecastingtool on November 19, 2014 at 2:35 PM Comments comments (1)

As the Second Economic Adjustment Program for Greece is soon coming to an end, there is a growing debate about the impact of the agreed austerity measures, whether the economic recession is finally over, and, most of all, what the next day may be.


In order to evaluate the course and future potential of the Greek economy, in terms of GDP value and growth levels, we used a double

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Ebola Outbreak 2014 forecast: reported cases expected to increase significantly in the following months

Posted by forecastingtool on October 9, 2014 at 9:25 PM Comments comments (0)


As the number of reported cases of the recent Ebola virus outbreak is continuously rising, so is the concern of the people and public officials about the possible duration and severity of the deadly epidemic.


In order to estimate the evolution of the disease, we used the s-curve model an...

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New Book: "An S-Shaped Adventure: Predictions - 20 Years Later"

Posted by forecastingtool on September 17, 2014 at 8:35 PM Comments comments (0)

This book is a stand-alone sequel to Theodore Modis’s ground-breaking book Predictions: Society’s Telltale Signature Reveals the Past and Forecasts the Future (Simon & Schuster, 1992). In addition to confronting the predictions made 20 years ago with actual data-something forecasters generally ref...

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What makes our world and the economy tick? Part II: China vs. The West

Posted by forecastingtool on September 17, 2014 at 5:00 PM Comments comments (0)

China’s recent growth frenzy should not be a surprise. Its economy has been one of the largest in the world in the last two thousand years, reaching a peak point near the beginning of the 19th century, accounting for almost one third of the global economy at the time. However, by the mid-20th century the Chinese Empire and its economy collapsed to a mere 5% contribution to global GDP only to rise again after Deng Xiaoping assumed power in 1977. Key in understanding these econ...

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What makes our world and the economy tick?

Posted by forecastingtool on August 27, 2014 at 11:35 AM Comments comments (2)

Although it is common knowledge that the development of the past 500 years is based on a series of important discoveries that helped shape our modern civilization, we still don’t understand exactly how innovation adds value to the economy and, even more, how to quantify this relationship. This post will shed some light to the relationship between innovation and economic growth and help us understand how our decisions and efforts today may influence our future!

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A new method and iPad application to Forecast Stocks like species by Dr. Theodore Modis

Posted by forecastingtool on September 15, 2013 at 11:45 AM Comments comments (1)

In the stock market where you invest your money by buying shares there is competition. The competitors are all the issues traded on the Big Board. They can be seen as species engaged in a Darwinian struggle for survival of the fittest. They compete for investors’ favour. In this approach the shares behave like species and the stock market like an ecosystem. But despite appearances, price is not the competitive variable involved, because price simply does not constitute...
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