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Henry Kissinger talks about the China challenge, forty years after his visit!

Posted by forecastingtool on July 18, 2011 at 12:30 PM

Henry Kissinger, former Secretary of State under Nixon, made two trips to China, in July and October 1971. That was just a few years before the Chinese miracle began, when Deng Xiaoping succeeded Mao Zedong in the late 1970s.

 

When asked, during a recent TV appearance in CNN, Kissinger replied that at the time, the potential rise of China as the key competitor to the United States would have been inconceivable. He added though that the US has been dominant for 50 years, where China has been dominant in 1800 of the last 2000 years! So, perhaps China’s rise wasn’t such a great surprise after all...

 

Indeed, if we take a closer look to the last 200 years of our history, we will discover that China, at its peak near 1820, accounted for almost 1/3 of the global GDP. Following the lost Opium wars and the subsequent deterioration of the Chinese Empire, its contribution fell rapidly to just 5% at 1950. It remained near this level until Deng Xiaoping assumed power and began growing ever since. Now this contribution exceeds 17% and is expected to reach the previous 1820 maximum levels near the mid-2020s. After that, it is possible that the Chinese economy will have reached its maximum potential and that we will possibly witness a new “challenger” rising as history will be repeating itself once more...

Categories: Economy

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2 Comments

Reply Mandla Maleka
1:38 AM on October 13, 2011 
It should be surprising to the USA that China is a world economic leader - after all - they have the bigegest headache on how to keep over a billion people employed. The US's arrogance and its reliance on credit fueled growth, should learn from the Chinese that long before Keynes argued for the importance of government invoolvement in the economy, the Chinese knew that. Watch social media and how it will bring China down on its poor and sometimes appaling human rights record. India could be the next giant -
Reply forecastingtool
7:42 PM on October 13, 2011 
Mandla Maleka says...
It should be surprising to the USA that China is a world economic leader - after all - they have the bigegest headache on how to keep over a billion people employed. The US's arrogance and its reliance on credit fueled growth, should learn from the Chinese that long before Keynes argued for the importance of government invoolvement in the economy, the Chinese knew that. Watch social media and how it will bring China down on its poor and sometimes appaling human rights record. India could be the next giant -



Well, it shouldn't be a surprise. Just check another post of this blog (http://www.forecastingnet.com/apps/blog/entries/show/9081039-the
-rise-and-fall-of-modern-empires-part-i) about the rise of China and Asian economies and how we could have predicted it decades ago.

I agree with you that in the near future China will start to lose momentum and perhaps another superpower power will emerge, possibly India. According to an article published in 2008 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2008.06.003) that could happen by 2024.