Forecasting Net

Look into the future

Blog

The future of the global economy: 2013 - 2030

Posted by forecastingtool on January 30, 2013 at 6:15 PM

 

It’s been four years since the still raging global economic crisis begun in 2008. Although our understanding of the crisis is getting better, we still don’t have a clear idea where the global economy is heading and what kind of growth (if any) we should be expecting in the future.

 

According to an article published by Elsevier in early 2011, based on the Interaction Systems’ model of the global economy, global GDP is expected to almost double by the end of 2030 compared to its current level (see Fig.1). However, growth will be moderate and below the high rates of the pre-crisis period. In fact, for the remaining of the decade, from 2013 to 2020, the model estimates an average global GDP growth rate around 3.8%. For the next decade, growth is expected to decline even more to approximately 3.1% by 2030.

 

So far, the IS model’s predictions, using actual data only up to 2005 for the fitting process, followed quite well actual global GDP values for the years 2006 to 2012, offering a seven year “look” into the future of the global economy. If the prediction of the IS model also proves right for 2013-onwards, then we should expect a mild recovery of the economy in the following years. However, this is a delicate, fragile growth that could be easily overturned by hasty or erroneous decisions …

 

 

Categories: Economy, Forecasting

Post a Comment

Oops!

Oops, you forgot something.

Oops!

The words you entered did not match the given text. Please try again.

Already a member? Sign In

5 Comments

Reply Stephen Siamai Kromah
12:20 PM on February 8, 2013 
Remember this is just a model predicting growth of the world GDP of length of time.Considering debt to GDP ratio of EU countries, budget deficit cut in the US, it is possible GDP growth can be mild.
Reply Makwemba Malonje
12:33 PM on February 22, 2013 
Finally a crystal ball of the economic future? The post 2010 slope of the IS curve is very steep...what will drive the phenomenal global growth? Can this be compared with the yield curve predictions?
Reply mmalonje@yahoo.com
12:46 PM on February 22, 2013 
Finally a crystal ball of the economic future? The post 2010 slope of the IS curve is very steep... what will drive the envisaged phenomenal growth? Can this be compared with yield curve predictions?
Reply Olaf Meyer-Rühle
11:29 AM on April 27, 2013 
If the growth rates mentioned are average annual rates, this should be clearly stated. A sentence like "For the next decade, growth is expected to decline even more to approximately 3.1% by 2030. is a masterpiece of inprecision.
Reply forecastingtool
7:39 PM on April 30, 2013 
All figures mentioned here are year end actual or estimated values. Consequently, growth is year-on-year growth and not average annual rates. And yes, growth, according to the model is expected to fell even more to 3.1% by 2030. It's not a disaster but not a miracle growth either...And it's certainly much less that the pre-crisis growth rate levels.


Olaf Meyer-R�hle says...
If the growth rates mentioned are average annual rates, this should be clearly stated. A sentence like "For the next decade, growth is expected to decline even more to approximately 3.1% by 2030. is a masterpiece of inprecision.