What is the Forecasting tool?
The Forecasting Tool is an Excel* based application that can generate valuable forecasts, in just 4 easy steps, for any growth process over time that has an S-shape (cumulative values) or Bell-shape (per period values).
The Forecasting Tool can be used for data sets of different nature, such as new product or technology market penetration, customer installed base evolution, cumulative product sales, new ideas adaption, spread of news, population growth, spread of epidemics, and virtually any growth process that has an upper limit and resembles an S-curve or a Bell-curve.
In order to use the Forecasting Tool with per-period data (Bell-curve), you should first transform the process to an S-curve by using cumulative data i.e. the sum of all data until a certain period. For instance, if your data represents new customers per year, you should use the sum of all new customers from the first year until each year (i.e. the customer base evolution).
All you have to do is provide the actual values of the data set per time and press the SOLVE button (you need to have macros enabled). After the calculation is completed, the Forecasting Tool will produce the following estimates:
Future values of the growth process for a selected period
The maximum value that the data set is expected to reach
The expected life cycle of the growth process (i.e. the time that it will take to be completed)
The midpoint around which the growth process evolves (i.e. the point in time where the growth process is halfway to completion)
Download the Forecasting Tool
Example cases
The following are some indicative example cases where the Forecasting tool was used (in some cases with other tools as well) to generate future insights.
Indicative applications
Some applications of the Forecasting Tool that you may consider.
Product or company sales
Enter your product sales, in values or quantities, per period and use the Forecasting Tool to make future estimates to identify your sales potential. Use cumulative data i.e. sum of sales until each period.
Customer installed base
Enter the total number of active customers that you have every month or year and use the Forecasting Tool to generate future estimates about your installed base.
Social media traction
Count the number of social media account followers, post likes, post reshares, comments, or any other social media engagement indicator and let and use the Forecasting Tool to estimate the evolution of your social media traction.
Technology adoption
Enter the total number of adopters of a new technology per year and use the Forecasting Tool to generate future estimates of the market.
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